10. Financial Projections
Validation & Assumptions
In this chapter, we delve into the financial outlook of our project for the next five years, with a focus on the anticipated financial performance and growth potential.
Main sources and validation of our plans:
- Occupancy figures: Informed by conversations with campground owners in France and Italy, supplemented by our assumptions and insights from a friendly revenue manager.
- Industry expertise: Our extensive experience in the hospitality industry, reinforced by our education at the Maastricht Hotel Management School, provides us with a thorough understanding of the expected margins, KPIs, and standard figures within the hospitality sector.
- Local expenses: Specific Italian expenses, such as waste disposal fees and personnel costs, have been validated with our Italian Commercialista (accountant).
- Expert review Our financial projections have been thoroughly evaluated by an experienced controller and a financial advisor from the Netherlands.
Assumptions for our projections:
- The market for naturist camping is considered stable and potentially growing, supported by analyses from chapters 5 and 6. With 100 spots at our medium-sized campground, only a small market share is needed to be profitable.
- Our camping rates are in line with similar campgrounds such as Sasso Corbo, Le Betulle, and Ca Le Scope. These rates reflect our comparable offerings.
- For our catering services, we apply prices that align with the aforementioned campgrounds, with beverage prices based on standard rates in Italian establishments.
- In our calculations, we account for an annual inflation rate of 3%.
- Although the world has recently been regularly shaken by COVID or the wars in Ukraine and Israel, we do not include extremes in our plans.
For detailed figures and calculations, we refer to our financial model, available upon request via info@campinginsieme.com. This document provides an in-depth insight into the financial backbone of our project and supports the feasibility and sustainability of our venture.
Occupancy Expectations
Via the tabs below, you can view the expected occupancy levels for the first five years. Currently, we assume that we can open this year (2024) in July. However, we also consider a realistic scenario where the opening does not happen this year (for example, if financing or the purchase takes too long). This does not significantly affect the figures (Year 1 will have all values at 0), except that we have to provide our own income to cover this year.
For all years, we use 3 scenarios. The base scenario (yellow) is the expectation we use for all figures - but we also consider scenarios where things go better than expected (green) or worse than expected (red).
2024 - The start-up year
In the first year (2024), we intend to start with 3 glamping tents and/or cottages, along with 97 camping pitches. Due to our limited brand awareness in the first year and our doors opening only in July, we anticipate an average occupancy rate of 16% for the camping pitches and 19% for the glamping tents and/or cottages in an average scenario.Â
For reference: Conversations with various campsite owners indicate that an average occupancy rate of 50% for the pitches is considered normal for campsites in Tuscany.
2025 - The First Full Year
For the year 2025, our first full operational year, we welcome our guests from May to October. Just like in 2024, we will offer the same capacity, with 3 glamping tents and/or cottages and 97 camping pitches.
With a longer season and hopefully growing brand awareness, we aim for a significant increase in our occupancy rates. We expect the average occupancy rate for the camping pitches to increase to 34%, while for the glamping tents and/or cottages, an average occupancy rate of 46% is anticipated.
2026 - Extra glampingtent
For the year 2026, we plan to install 1 new glamping tent, bringing our total to 4 glamping tents and/or cottages and 96 camping pitches. With this expansion and our growing recognition, we anticipate further improvement in our occupancy rates. We estimate that the average occupancy rate for the camping pitches will increase to 39%, while we expect to maintain an occupancy rate of 46% for the glamping tents and/or cottages.
2027 - Lease 3 additional tents
For the year 2027, we continue our growth strategy by adding 3 additional glamping tents, bringing our total to 7 glamping tents and/or cottages. We anticipate a gradual increase in the occupancy rate, thanks in part to new visitors and the return of previous guests in this fourth year. The expectation is that the occupancy rate for the camping pitches will rise to 44%, while for the glamping tents and/or cottages we anticipate an occupancy rate of 55%.
2028 - "Business as usual"
In 2028, we aim for a stable base, a sort of 'business as usual'. With an average seasonal occupancy of 49% for the camping pitches and 64% for the accommodations, we expect to reach a sort of growth limit. The campsite will then be nearly full in July and early August. However, we will still install 3 additional glamping tents to increase the luxurious offering to 10 accommodations.
For our projections, we use the average of year 5 for the subsequent years.
Revenue Expectations & Pricing
Pricing Assumptions for Accommodations
camping spots
- Prices based on 'competition' -> Ca’ le Scope, Sasso Corbo, Le Betulle, and Costalunga in Italy.
- Annual inflation of 3% has been factored into the projections.
- Separate prices for low, medium, and high seasons.
- Assumption that 90% of guests use electricity.
- Prices include 10% IVA (VAT) and tourist tax.
- Children: up to 2 years old are free, and the prices below are for ages 3 to 15.
Glamping Tents & Cottages
- Prices based on competition in both FR and IT.
- Annual inflation of 3% has been factored into the projections.
- Separate prices for low, medium, and high seasons.
- Prices for accommodations inc. sanitary facilities.
- Prices include 10% IVA (VAT) and tourist tax.
- During the peak season, the minimum length of stay is 1 week.
Prijs Aannames Eten & Drinken
Catering prices Tuscany
- We still need to establish our exact catering prices. For now, we have worked with an average expenditure per person per offering that we provide.
- These average expenditures are, of course, in line with the table below and include 10% VAT (Value Added Tax).
- Annual inflation of 3% has been factored into the projections.
Verwachtingen eten & drinken
The table below shows our expectations with regard to the consumption of food & drinks and participating in activities at the campsite.
Restaurant
Offer
A fixed 4-course menu twice a week
Capacity
30 places
Occupation
Low season 50% occupied High season 100% occupied
Spending pattern
Adults spend an average of €24.50 on food and €5.50 on drinks, while children spend an amount of €12.00.
Bar & Terrace
Offer
6 days a week
Capacity
100 seats
Occupation
30% of the total number of camping guests visit the terrace at least once a month for a drink, of which 15% actually eat something.
Spending pattern
€5 p.p. for drinks and if you eat something another €5 p.p.
Pizza/Snack
Offer
6 days a week
Capacity
N/A
Occupation
Every day, 10% of the guests present order something. Of those orders, 80% eat pizza and 20% snacks.
Spending pattern
€10 p.p. for pizza and €5 p.p. for snack/fries
Coffee/Ice Cream/Shop/Bakery
Offer
Every day
Capacity
N/A
Occupation
Of our guests, 5% enjoy an Italian coffee, 20% treat themselves to an ice cream, 2.5% make a purchase in the store and 50% buy bread.
Spending pattern
Guests spend on average €1.50 on coffee, €2.00 on ice cream, €5.00 in the shop, and €2.00 on bread per person.
Buffet & Party Evening
Offer
1x per week (in high season)
Capacity
Maximum 100 people for dinner
Occupation
That is 35% of the guests in a high season in year 3
Spending pattern
Adults €12.50 for food and €7.50 for drinks and children €7.50 for food and €2.50 for drinks
Activities
Offer
Mountain biking and SUPing take place 8 times a month, cooking workshops and wine tastings 4 times.
Capacity
We can accommodate 6 participants for mountain biking and SUP, and 15 for cooking workshops and wine tastings.
Occupation
In low season there is an occupancy of 50%, which increases to 100% in high season.
Spending pattern
Participants pay €7.50 for mountain biking or SUPing and €15 for a cooking workshop or wine tasting.
Turnover expectations, DIRECT PURCHASING COSTS AND GROSS PROFIT
Through the buttons, you can switch between the projected revenue, purchase costs, and gross profit of the 3 scenarios.
The financial forecasts for Campeggio Naturista INSIEME show a positive growth trend for scenario 2. The expected revenues from accommodations exhibit an upward trajectory, starting at €136.000 in 2024, with a projected increase to €495.000 in 2028. This growth is attributed to increasing awareness of the campsite and the expansion of offerings with glamping tents and chalets as explained in the occupancy scenarios above.
The revenue from food and beverages is expected to increase from €54.000 to €145.000 during the respective period. The assumptions for this are explained above. In the industry, it is assumed that F&B revenue accounts for between 15% and 25% of the total revenue. Campeggio Naturista INSIEME is positioned at the higher end of this scale, which is consistent with the focus on dining and drinking establishments at the campsite.
While revenues from activities represent a smaller portion of the total revenue, the intention is to view them as value-added services for guests rather than a primary source of income.
Overall, we see year 1 as the startup year, years 2, 3, and 4 as ramp-up years with significant growth, and year 5 as a stable average for the future.
Direct costs, of Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), refer to the expenses associated with items that are directly sold to customers.
Examples include the costs of food and beverages, as well as operational materials such as toilet paper and cleaning supplies. The average food costs in restaurants are approximately 33% of the selling price.
Average beverage costs are slightly higher, approximately 37.5% of the selling price. The gross profit percentages are the same for scenarios 1 and 3 since they involve purchasing percentages rather than fixed purchasing figures.
Operational costs (Overhead)
Through the buttons below, we compile a detailed overview of the operating expenses, taking into account the three scenarios. It is evident that with lower occupancy rates, the need for personnel decreases, which directly influences our cost structure. Furthermore, in these scenarios, we have also factored in adjustments to our own salaries, marketing, and other variable costs, thereby creating a realistic picture of the financial health under different circumstances.
One of the most significant expense items is the rent. The way this expense is structured and how it interacts with our investment model will be further explained in the ''investment''section. This provides the reader with insight into how the rental costs relate to the total investments and their impact on the overall financial strategy of our project.
See scenario as expected
We have made a distinction between variable costs (which we can cut) and fixed costs, which are not easily adjustable, for the different scenarios.
The fixed costs include:Â The rent, lease costs for the glamping tents, telephone & internet expenses, municipal taxes, maintenance, insurance, and administrative costs are categorized as fixed costs.
The more variable costs are: Utility costs, marketing expenses, our management fee, personnel costs, and transportation.Â
The attentive reader will notice that the EBITDA figures for the 3 scenarios do not vary significantly. This is because we can 'play' with the variable buttons. Overall, we demonstrate a reasonable earning capacity, and we would only face challenges in extreme scenarios where we might not earn enough to cover the fixed costs.
See scenario as expected
Taxes, interest, depreciation, and conclusion
With an expected EBITDA of approximately €140,000 in the fifth year, we see a solid foundation for profitability. The costs leading up to the EBITDA provide insight into our operational efficiency, while the items thereafter—taxes, interest, and depreciation—shed more light on the financing structure. This is where your contribution becomes crucial.
We invite you to explore the "Invest" page and see how you can be part of our adventure. Your investment not only helps realize our dream but also offers the potential for attractive returns. Additionally, as an investor, you can enjoy special privileges at the campsite. So if you're ready to invest in a place where freedom and nature converge, let's start this journey together.